Future · A map of possible futures
The future,branching.
Eleven turning points between now and 2100. Decide what happens at any of them and watch the odds of everything else move, across all 2,048 possible futures.
11 turning points2,048 futurescomputed live in your browser
The multiverse: every band is a future, as thick as it is likely. Light bands are futures still open to you. Tap a band to step into that future.
How the century ends
- By 2029Published forecast
The world’s five-year average passes 1.5 °C
70%The WMO gives a 70% chance that 2025–2029 averages more than 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Source: WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2025–2029.
- By 2035Published forecast
A quantum computer can break today’s internet encryption
38%Experts put a code-breaking quantum computer within ten years at 28–49%; we use the middle. Source: Global Risk Institute, Quantum Threat Timeline Report 2025.
- By 2035Our estimate
Fusion power reaches an electricity grid
30%70% of fusion companies expect grid power by 2035. Builders are optimists, so we start at 30%. Source: Fusion Industry Association, The global fusion industry in 2024.
- By 2047Published forecast
AI can do every task better and more cheaply than people
51%Researchers’ combined forecast: a 50% chance of human-level machine intelligence by 2047. Source: AI Impacts, 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI (2,778 researchers).
- By 2050Our estimate
A major AI accident sets the world back
3%The median researcher puts the very worst AI outcomes at 5%. Without human-level AI we put a setback at 1%. Source: AI Impacts, 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI (2,778 researchers).
- By 2050Our estimate
The world reaches net-zero carbon emissions
32%Our estimate: today’s policies fall short of net zero by 2050; cheap fusion or AI-led engineering would change that.
- By 2050Our estimate
Brain–computer links become everyday products
29%Our estimate: implants now restore speech and movement in trials; everyday use needs far better, safer hardware.
- By 2050Our estimate
People walk on Mars
41%Our estimate: crewed missions are planned for the 2030s and 2040s, and schedules in spaceflight usually slip.
- By 2060Our estimate
Healthy lifespan grows by twenty years
24%Our estimate: a jump this large needs medicine that slows ageing itself, which AI-led science would speed up.
- By 2060Our estimate
A full human brain region is simulated, neuron by neuron
28%Our estimate: it takes quantum-scale computing, full brain maps and AI working together.
- By 2084Published forecast
World population peaks, near 10.3 billion
78%The UN projects a peak of about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, about 80% likely within this century. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects 2024.
How this map works
Forecasts first, then honest guesses.
Each turning point starts from a published forecast where a good one exists: the World Meteorological Organization for warming, the Global Risk Institute’s expert survey for quantum computing, the largest survey of AI researchers for human-level AI, and the United Nations for population. Where no such forecast exists, the starting odds are ours, and they are marked as our estimate.
Turning points are linked. If fusion power arrives, net zero becomes far more likely; if AI reaches human level, so do medicine that slows ageing and brain–computer links; a serious AI accident sets most other progress back. The links are combined the way a Bayesian network combines evidence, and every one of the 2,048 futures is weighed exactly, in your browser. Choose a later event first and the earlier odds move too.
This is a map for thinking, not a prophecy. The numbers will be wrong in places; the shape of the choices is the point.